NILE BASIN SEASONAL HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK AND ADVISORY MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2026 SEASON
Nile Basin Seasonal Hydrological Outlook and Advisory– MAM 2026
The Nile Basin Initiative has released the Seasonal Hydrological Outlook for March–April–May (MAM) 2026, highlighting the expected rainfall patterns and distributions, river flow and lake water level conditions, and the associated sectoral impacts across the Basin with key recommendations and advisories to Member States.
Key Climate Outlook Highlights:
- Increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall over most parts of the Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL) region and few parts of the Eastern Nile Basin.
- Near-normal conditions expected in several central regions of the basin.
- Increased probability of below-normal rainfall in selected downstream and western areas.
Anticipated Hydrological Implications:
- Elevated river flows and potential flood risk in areas projected to receive above-normal rainfall.
- Improved reservoir inflows and hydropower generation potential in some upstream catchments in the NEL.
- Reduced streamflows and possible localized water stress in areas forecasted to experience below-normal rainfall.
- Increased sediment transport and erosion risk in high-intensity rainfall zones.
Advisory to Stakeholders:
- Strengthen real-time hydrological monitoring and early warning dissemination.
- Optimize reservoir operations to balance flood control and water storage.
- Enhance community preparedness in flood-prone areas.
- Activate drought mitigation plans in vulnerable regions.
- Promote coordinated transboundary water management and data and information sharing within the NBI Interim Data Sharing Protocol.
The Outlook serves as a decision-support tool to guide proactive planning, risk reduction, and sustainable water resource management during the MAM 2026 season.
For detailed basin-wide and sub-basin analysis, stakeholders are encouraged to refer to the full technical report.