Nile Basin Initative (NBI)

Transboundary context

The Eastern Nile region is characterized by highly variable river flows, making it prone to extremes of flood and drought events. A significant proportion of the annual runoff volume of Eastern Nile, contributing over 86% of the total River Nile flows, occurs in only three months, July to September. During high rainfall periods major rivers in the region often give rise to large scale riverine flooding, particularly in floodplains of Sudan and Ethiopia, with devastating effect on lives, livelihoods, and property. The estimated Average Annual Damage (AAD) is USD 25.77 million and USD 5.54 million in rural settlements riparian to the Blue Nile and Main Nile in Sudan and in the Fogera and Dembiya floodplains adjoining Lake Tana respectively. The 2006 flood in Ethiopia, for example, resulted in 700 deaths and 242,000 people displaced. The 1998 flood in Sudan caused a direct flood damage of US$ 24.3 million. Extreme climatic and weather events such as droughts and floods are one of the clearest instances which literally drive home the need for transboundary cooperation.  All flood protection (also drought) and management national activities - no matter how sophisticated and expensive - are ultimately rendered only of limited effectiveness if they are not founded on a strong upstream-downstream i.e. transboundary cooperation. It is from this rationale that Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan came together to set up, through ENSAP the Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project.

Project Description

Implemented in two phases, the project gives emphasis to flood risk management and non-structural approaches to managing the impact of flood. The FPEW project enhances regional collaboration and improves national capacity in the mitigation, forecasting, warning, emergency preparedness, and response to floods in the Eastern Nile basin.

Results to –date

In the just concluded 1^st phase (2007-2010) the project has achieved the following results, consisting of non-structural measures and pilot interventions.  More specific achievements include the following:

1. Enhancement of regional Coordination capabilities: exchange of expertise, information/data sharing and professional development. National Flood coordination units in the three EN countries have been established and strengthened. A total of 23 training/workshops and 3 annual modeling forums were conducted. Special studies n Numerical Weather Prediction modeling and policy enhancement of existing voluntary resettlement.
2. Pilot flood Preparedness and Emergency Response: These included:
   • Preparation of Flood risk maps for pilot communities in Ethiopia and Sudan;
   • Operationalization of non-structural community flood preparedness and response plans
   • Peak season community surveillance
3. Flood Forecasting Warning and communication System: 
   
   • Design for data acquisition, communication and flood forecasting systems
   • Strengthening Egypt  Numerical Weather Prediction Models,  and establishing National Weather  and Flood Forecast Capability in both Ethiopia and Sudan
   • Integration of flood forecasting modeling into an operational flood forecasting package.
   • Operationalization and testing of the developed forecasting modeling systems during the 2010 flood season – including installation of 18 manual rain gauges on the headwaters of Lake Tana watersheds in Ethiopia.

Next Steps: Five year plan (2012-2016)

The Project’s Phase I demonstrated that the design and the implementation modalities are cost effective. However, the scale has been limited. The forecasting models require further enhancement and integration.  Phase II will hence focus on upscaling, with the following sub-programs:

1. Regional Program: Regional coordination unit; institutional strengthening; regional modeling and flood season monitoring; upscale of flood risk mapping and community interventions; flood forecasting, warning and communication (USD 6.963 million).
2. Ethiopia Sub-Program: establish network of reporting river gauging and rain gauge stations; capacity building; community
3. education and training; flood protection works – Gambella preliminary investigations, design and construction; land management planning Bahirdar, Gambella. (USD 11.055 Million)
4. Sudan Sub-Program: New reporting river gauging stations and weather stations; community education and training; Tuti, Singa, Dongola flood protection works, preliminary investigations, design and construction; land management, Khartoum; investigations of river hydraulics, sediment transport, channel morphology; pilot appropriate technology for bank stability. (USD 17.302 million).
5. Egypt Sub-Program: flood forecasting studies; revision of flood forecasting procedures; sediment transport modeling of pilot reach; land use management (USD 3.499 million).

Expected outcomes

When completed, the project will:

• Benefit 100,000 people directly and 1.2 million indirectly in 198 flood prone communities in major urban and rural centers in Sudan (the corresponding figures in Ethiopia are 50,000 and 500,000 million people in 107 flood-prone communities).
• A benefit-cost ratio of 1.6 makes the project economically viable. Improved disaster, emergency preparedness response
• Coordination technical and institutional capabilities at regional national and local levels will  be strengthened and consolidated.

Funding: The project is currently engaged in mobilization of funding to the tune of USD 39 million to finance the above activities

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